Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 12.149639 14.911011 17.991607 21.659664 25.883907 30.571902 36.142760
2025-11-16 8.035652 11.503465 15.821357 21.488789 28.620361 37.183303 48.118977
2025-11-23 5.622845 9.177734 14.023456 20.887204 30.114345 41.835606 57.567730
2025-11-30 4.449342 8.115444 13.499164 21.597301 33.045297 48.204946 69.292467
2025-12-07 3.363034 6.872283 12.422434 21.266588 34.368250 52.384761 78.255519
2025-12-14 2.676100 6.078268 11.832958 21.477759 36.346150 57.444516 88.538443
2025-12-21 1.946783 4.999571 10.570431 20.436135 36.303079 59.567038 94.777867
2025-12-28 1.617430 4.590313 10.351240 20.993945 38.661887 65.196617 106.140161
2026-01-04 1.318164 4.153663 9.995797 21.250972 40.520730 70.134990 116.672254
2026-01-11 1.092469 3.812581 9.753381 21.651870 42.601216 75.466636 127.954343
2026-01-18 0.928226 3.569340 9.657576 22.286842 45.082240 81.495115 140.469908
2026-01-25 0.709201 3.097416 8.995166 21.774434 45.550164 84.363016 148.284741
2026-02-01 0.556378 2.768089 8.615258 21.827374 47.120637 89.253004 159.717463
2026-02-08 0.424046 2.439153 8.171472 21.703506 48.377729 93.725569 170.743291
2026-02-15 0.303083 2.072066 7.543354 21.100124 48.683367 96.609274 179.340536
2026-02-22 0.252427 1.954588 7.533546 21.815999 51.491876 103.793681 195.036324
2026-03-01 0.183374 1.698995 7.081840 21.482693 52.248651 107.494167 205.204128
2026-03-08 0.141977 1.544948 6.882404 21.695529 54.071236 113.092922 218.638145
2026-03-15 0.089742 1.260060 6.196016 20.645663 53.269619 114.023988 224.352405
2026-03-22 0.071963 1.183997 6.167411 21.207898 55.791037 120.960019 240.312949
2026-03-29 0.054498 1.083926 6.027963 21.466955 57.687465 126.829726 254.631473
2026-04-05 0.041991 1.006513 5.948759 21.871008 59.909466 133.366815 270.262335
2026-04-12 0.033570 0.955760 5.957673 22.510951 62.672809 140.992569 287.959529